Pollsters and pundits are fixated on whether former President Donald Trump will once again break Democratic dominance in the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But Republicans have a chance to break something much more substantial: the Democratic coalition.
Eight years after Trump coalesced white working-class voters under the Republican banner, he’s now making inroads with Black and Hispanic voters.Pollafterpollshows Republicans closing the gap with Democrats among these demographics, which is a five-alarm fire for the left.
Since 2008, Democrats’ strategy has depended on cleaning up at the ballot box with four key groups, including Black, Hispanic, single women and millennial voters. Two of the four legs are now wobbling, increasing the likelihood that their electoral hopes come crashing down.
Democrats never imagined that Black and Hispanic voters would abandon them. Two decades ago, the left widely believedthat minority voters would form the backbone of an unbeatable liberal majority in the 21stcentury. Since then, Democrats have tried to drive turnout among their coalition by focusing on divisive issues. For single women, they focused on abortion, and for younger voters, climate change and canceling student debt. For Black and Hispanic voters, meanwhile, Democrats have emphasized grievance politics − warning about systemic racism and anti-immigrant sentiment.
Democrats are guaranteed to double down on this approach between now and November, hoping to lure back more minority voters. But liberal leaders should instead ask why so many Black and Hispanic voters have turned rightward in the first place. The answer is simple: The Democratic Party is ignoring the issues they care about most.
Voters of color aren't happy with Biden.But we're not rushing to Trump's camp.
While President Joe Biden and prominent Democrats are focused on grievance politics,pollsshowthat Black and Hispanic voters are focused on jobs, inflation and the economy.
In other words, their top issues revolve around opportunity − on making ends meet and making life better for themselves and their children. They want politicians and policies that give them the best shot at the best life.
Inflation has driven up families' monthly expenses
Why aren’t Democrats relentlessly talking about opportunity? Perhaps because of Biden's record in the White House, where he has overseen a devastating rise in the inflation rate.
According to research by Moody's Analytics, the typical familypaid $709 a month in extra expenses last year compared with 2021. That's more than $8,500 a year in additional cost for the same goods and services.
Just20% of Black Americans – same as white Americans – and 14% of HispanicAmericans have a positive view of the Biden economy.
Biden claims to stand for women.But his new regulation will kill jobs that women want.
Democrats are losing minority support because of this widespread economic frustration. Although Trump and Republicans are benefiting from this drift, it’s not fair to say they’re driving it. They’re gaining Black and Hispanic votes by default, when they should be doing a full-court press to win these voters decisively and permanently.
That’s why Republicans should respond to economic frustration by rallying around economic freedom.
Republicans should relentlessly and directly speak to minority voters’ dreams of opportunity. It’s a simple, powerful message − we believe in you, we care about you, we want to help you achieve the American dream.
That’s a powerful contrast with Democrats’ message of grievance and resentment. And it lends itself to a clear policy vision.
Republicans need to promote economic opportunity
Republicans should advocate for destroying bureaucratic barriers to opportunity, entrepreneurship and wage growth. They should call for leveling the playing field, ending subsidies for politically connected big businesses so that regular people can get small businesses off the ground.
Ultimately, they should promise to get government out of the way, because government is the biggest threat to opportunity for Americans of every background. A good practical example are South Carolina Republican Sen. Tim Scott’s Opportunity Zones, which have spurred investment and entrepreneurship in struggling minority communities since 2017.
Sadly, the GOP isn’t doing enough to advocate for such policies. Instead of standing by its longtime principles of free markets and free people, Republicans are rallying around their own vision of government control − “industrial policy,” in which Washington, D.C., props up some industries at everyone’s expense.
At the same time, Trump is engaged in his own brand of grievance politics, endlessly talking about punishing his enemies instead of uplifting all Americans.
The former president and his fellow Republicans don’t seem to want to change their approach, since Black and Hispanic voters are already trending rightward. But they’re not drawn by Trump’s strengths so much as reacting to Biden’s failures.
Republicans have yet to convince minority voters that the GOP is a permanent home for anyone who wants bigger paychecks, better jobs and a brighter future.
If the party stands strong for economic freedom, it won’t just break the “blue wall” of traditionally Democratic-leaning states in the 2024 election. It will break the Democratic coalition for decades to come.
John Tillman is chairman and CEO of the American Culture Project.
